Pattern Recognition_Blackstone

Pattern Recognition

Insights from the World’s Leading Alternative Asset Manager

July 23, 2024

Record-Breaking Summer Travel

By Joe Zidle
  • According to TSA data, the US has seen 12 of the 15 busiest travel days on record since mid-May.1
  • International-bound travel is particularly strong. As of May, over 28 million Americans have traveled abroad in 2024 – the most in this time period over the past five years.2
  • At Blackstone, we recognized the “revenge travel” trend early, which helped inform investments across our real estate and private equity businesses.
Daily Volume of Travelers Screened by TSA
(7-day Moving Average, Millions of Passengers) 
Investing Before the All-Clear

Source: Transportation Security Administration and Macrobond, as of July 9, 2024.

  1. Transportation Security Administration, as of July 9, 2024.
  2. International Trade Association, as of May 31, 2024.

July 2, 2024

AI Driving Demand for Data Centers

By Joe Zidle
  • Artificial intelligence is driving a generational investment opportunity in the infrastructure that supports it.
  • Data center space is being eaten up at a rapid pace, reaching record heights in 2023, 11x that of 2016.
  • Data center demand is expected to continue as new AI models are released.
  • Upcoming text-to-video AI (like OpenAI’s Sora) could require 10,000x the computing power of a Google search.1
Step-Function Demand Increase
National Gross Data Center Absorption, Megawatts
Investing Before the All-Clear

Source: Datacenterhawk, as of December 31, 2023.

  1. Video AI based on Sora, sourced from Factorial Funds as of March 15, 2024.

June 4, 2024

Investing Before the All-Clear

By Joe Zidle
  • If you look at the real estate cycle coming out of the GFC, values bottomed well before market sentiment suggests.
  • While headlines remained negative for years, values were actually improving.
  • We are focused on the long view, not the rear view – deploying capital in an opportunity-rich environment, much like today.
Commercial Real Estate Values Through the GFC1
Indexed, June 2007 = 100
Investing Before the All-Clear

Note: Represents Blackstone’s view of the current market environment as of the date appearing in this material only. There can be no assurance that the trends described herein will continue or not reverse. 

  1. Green Street Advisors, as of December 31, 2023. Reflects the Commercial Property Price Index, which captures the prices at which US commercial real estate transactions are currently being negotiated and contracted. Equally weights Core Sectors: multifamily, office, industrial and retail.
  2. Reuters, as of July 29, 2009. Wall Street Journal, as of August 25, 2010. Forbes, as of October 3, 2012.

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Opinions expressed reflect the current opinions of Blackstone as of the date of publishing only and are based on Blackstone’s opinions of the then-current market environment, which is subject to change. Certain information contained in the content discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends, or other broad-based economic, market or political conditions and should not be construed as research or investment advice.

Certain information and data provided in this content are based on Blackstone proprietary knowledge and data. Portfolio companies may provide proprietary market data to Blackstone, including about local market supply and demand conditions, current market rents and operating expenses, capital expenditures, and valuations for multiple assets. Such proprietary market data is used by Blackstone to evaluate market trends as well as to underwrite potential and existing investments. Additionally, certain information contained in this content has been obtained from portfolio companies and/or sources outside Blackstone, such as press releases, reports, websites, and/or articles, which in certain cases have not been updated through the date hereof. While such information is believed to be reliable for purposes used herein, no representations are made as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and none of Blackstone, its funds, nor any of their affiliates takes any responsibility for, and has not independently verified, any such information. There can be no assurances that any of the trends described herein will continue or will not reverse. Past events and trends do not imply, predict or guarantee, and are not necessarily indicative of, future events or results. 

This commentary does not constitute an offer to sell any securities or the solicitation of an offer to purchase any securities. This commentary discusses broad market, industry or sector trends, or other general economic, market or political conditions and has not been provided in a fiduciary capacity under ERISA and should not be construed as research, investment advice, or any investment recommendation. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance.