Pattern Recognition_Blackstone

Pattern Recognition

Insights from the World’s Leading Alternative Asset Manager

October 16, 2024

M&A Rebound Bodes Well for Private Credit 

By Joe Zidle
  • History suggests lower rates support both private equity buyers and credit lenders as M&A activity increases. 
    • In North America, there is $1.5 trillion of dry powder in private equity, now being put to work as the Fed lowered rates.
  • Private credit is financing these transactions, filling the gaps left by traditional bank lenders.
  • The shift is structural—private lenders accounted for 86% of all leveraged buyouts in 2024 versus 65% in 2021.2
M&A Deal Volume
($ in billions, from 1985-2023)

Sources: Federal Reserve, Capital IQ and Thomson Reuters, as of December 31, 2023. M&A deal volume covers annual data from 1985-2023. Higher and lower rate environments determined by the annual 10-year US Treasury yield and whether it is above or below the average 10-year yield over the full period (1985-2023).  

  1. Preqin, as of June 30, 2024. Reflects latest data available and North America dry powder.
  2. Pitchbook LCD, as of June 30, 2024, and December 31, 2021. 

October 3, 2024

The Hidden Private Equity Opportunity: Mid-Caps

By Joe Zidle
  • Investors generally remain focused on a small number of mega-cap companies.
  • But for private equity investors, the opportunity exists in public mid-size companies, which are trading at the most attractive valuations in over 20 years.
  • Blackstone recently acquired mid-size companies in digital media and software/technology at a significant discount to their publicly traded peers.
  • We are watching mid-size businesses with strong fundamentals that others might overlook. 
Public-to-Private Transactions 

Source: Blackstone, S&P Capital IQ as of 6/30/2024. BX completed deal represents each respective Blackstone completed deal TEV at cost/NTM EBITDA. Median public company represents TEV/NTM EBITDA for comparable public peers from S&P Capital IQ and represents latest Blackstone analysis. 


September 6, 2024

E-Commerce Growth Fueling Logistics Demand

By Joe Zidle
  • E-commerce growth has been a powerful tailwind for logistics real estate.
  • Consumer expectations for faster delivery are pushing e-commerce retailers to compete for faster shipping times – Amazon’s average delivery turnaround has decreased to 1.5 days vs. 4.1 days in 2020.1
  • Meeting today’s consumer demands requires strategically located warehouses in densely populated areas.  
  • Where you invest matters: Blackstone is a global leader in last-mile logistics investing. 
Growth in Sales and Deliveries
(Percent Year-Over-Year, FY 2023) 

Source: Brick and Mortar and E-Commerce Sales: U.S. Census Bureau, as of December 31, 2023. Brick and mortar sales reflect total retail sales excluding motor vehicles and parts dealers, gasoline stations, food services and e-commerce sales. Amazon: Amazon 2023 Letter to Shareholders, as of April 11, 2024.

  1. NielsenIQ, as of September 18, 2023. Reflects the number of days from an online purchase transaction to package arrival from Q2 2020 to Q2 2023. 

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Opinions expressed reflect the current opinions of Blackstone as of the date of publishing only and are based on Blackstone’s opinions of the then-current market environment, which is subject to change. Certain information contained in the content discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends, or other broad-based economic, market or political conditions and should not be construed as research or investment advice.

Certain information and data provided in this content are based on Blackstone proprietary knowledge and data. Portfolio companies may provide proprietary market data to Blackstone, including about local market supply and demand conditions, current market rents and operating expenses, capital expenditures, and valuations for multiple assets. Such proprietary market data is used by Blackstone to evaluate market trends as well as to underwrite potential and existing investments. Additionally, certain information contained in this content has been obtained from portfolio companies and/or sources outside Blackstone, such as press releases, reports, websites, and/or articles, which in certain cases have not been updated through the date hereof. While such information is believed to be reliable for purposes used herein, no representations are made as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and none of Blackstone, its funds, nor any of their affiliates takes any responsibility for, and has not independently verified, any such information. There can be no assurances that any of the trends described herein will continue or will not reverse. Past events and trends do not imply, predict or guarantee, and are not necessarily indicative of, future events or results. 

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