Pattern Recognition_Blackstone

Pattern Recognition

Insights from the World’s Largest Alternative Asset Manager

June 4, 2024

Investing Before the All-Clear

By Joe Zidle
  • If you look at the real estate cycle coming out of the GFC, values bottomed well before market sentiment suggests.
  • While headlines remained negative for years, values were actually improving.
  • We are focused on the long view, not the rear view – deploying capital in an opportunity-rich environment, much like today.
Commercial Real Estate Values Through the GFC1
Indexed, June 2007 = 100
Investing Before the All-Clear

Note: Represents Blackstone’s view of the current market environment as of the date appearing in this material only. There can be no assurance that the trends described herein will continue or not reverse. 

  1. Green Street Advisors, as of December 31, 2023. Reflects the Commercial Property Price Index, which captures the prices at which US commercial real estate transactions are currently being negotiated and contracted. Equally weights Core Sectors: multifamily, office, industrial and retail.
  2. Reuters, as of July 29, 2009. Wall Street Journal, as of August 25, 2010. Forbes, as of October 3, 2012.

May 14, 2024

Real Estate Debt Markets Are Reopening

By Joe Zidle
  • Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) issuance has picked up meaningfully, up nearly 5x in Q1 2024 vs Q1 2023.
  • CMBS spreads have narrowed, bringing down the cost of capital.1
  • More accessible commercial real estate debt is likely to drive greater transaction activity.
US CMBS Issuance Activity
($ in billions) 
US CMBS Issuance Activity

Source: Green Street Advisors, as of March 31, 2024. Issuance data is for single asset single borrower CMBS loans.

  1. Blackstone proprietary data, as of March 31, 2024. CMBS spreads denoted as high quality (AAA) spreads across multi-family, industrial, data centers and manufactured housing sectors.

April 15, 2024

Rising Trade Drives Infrastructure Investment

By Joe Zidle
  • The US has had a rapid increase in trade with Mexico, Vietnam, Central/South America and Europe over the past few years.
  • These changing trade patterns have driven east and gulf coast ports to have some of the fastest growth in shipping volumes.1
  • This has contributed to $222B in US manufacturing construction in February 2024 – over 2x 2021.2
  • We are seeing this in real time through our port and logistics businesses.
Shifting US Trade Patterns
($ in billions) 
Shifting US Trade Patterns

Source: US Census Bureau, as of December 31, 2023. Data is annual total trade in goods.

  1. Based on Moffatt & Nichol and Ports Authority data as of May 2023. Comparison based on 2017-2022 actual volume growth CAGRs.
  2. US Census Bureau, as of April 1, 2024. Manufacturing construction spending represents monthly value of construction put in place (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in real US dollar terms.

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Opinions expressed reflect the current opinions of Blackstone as of the date of publishing only and are based on Blackstone’s opinions of the then-current market environment, which is subject to change. Certain information contained in the content discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends, or other broad-based economic, market or political conditions and should not be construed as research or investment advice.

Certain information and data provided in this content are based on Blackstone proprietary knowledge and data. Portfolio companies may provide proprietary market data to Blackstone, including about local market supply and demand conditions, current market rents and operating expenses, capital expenditures, and valuations for multiple assets. Such proprietary market data is used by Blackstone to evaluate market trends as well as to underwrite potential and existing investments. Additionally, certain information contained in this content has been obtained from portfolio companies and/or sources outside Blackstone, such as press releases, reports, websites, and/or articles, which in certain cases have not been updated through the date hereof. While such information is believed to be reliable for purposes used herein, no representations are made as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and none of Blackstone, its funds, nor any of their affiliates takes any responsibility for, and has not independently verified, any such information. There can be no assurances that any of the trends described herein will continue or will not reverse. Past events and trends do not imply, predict or guarantee, and are not necessarily indicative of, future events or results. 

This commentary does not constitute an offer to sell any securities or the solicitation of an offer to purchase any securities. This commentary discusses broad market, industry or sector trends, or other general economic, market or political conditions and has not been provided in a fiduciary capacity under ERISA and should not be construed as research, investment advice, or any investment recommendation. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance.