Pattern Recognition_Blackstone

Pattern Recognition

Insights from the World’s Leading Alternative Asset Manager

May 20, 2025

Secondaries Surge

By Joe Zidle
  • Publicly listed stocks and bonds trade on exchanges, while private drawdown funds are generally bought and sold on the “secondaries market.”
  • As private equity commitments have grown, so has the secondaries market. It has surged from $26B in 2013 to $160B in 2024, up 6x, which still represents less than 1.4% of the total value in private market funds.1 
  • That growth, combined with today’s muted IPO and M&A environment, and a heightened interest from endowments and others seeking early liquidity, has in our view created a particularly attractive environment for secondaries investors. 
Secondaries Market Transaction Volume
($ Billion)

Source: Evercore, February 2025.

  1. Preqin, as of September 30, 2024.

April 16, 2025

Private Real Estate Has Defied Downturns 

By Joe Zidle
  • Recent public market volatility underscores the importance of diversification.1
  • Historical data shows that private investments have provided diversification benefits, offering better downside protection during public market declines. 
  • Private real estate is a prime example of this, with a 0.0 correlation to public equities, and a -0.2 correlation to investment grade bonds.2
  • In seven of the last eight S&P 500 annual declines since 1980, private real estate experienced a positive return, delivering an average return of 6.2%, while the S&P dropped 13.8%. 
S&P 500 vs. Private Real Estate During S&P Declines
(% Average Annual Total Return)

Source: S&P and NFI-ODCE Index, as of December 31, 2024. Covers annual total returns during S&P drawdowns since 1980 (1981, 1990, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2008, 2018 and 2022).  

  1. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against losses.  
  2. Morningstar Direct, NCREIF, as of December 31, 2024. Covers a 20-year period from 2005 to 2024. Private real estate represented by the NFI-ODCE Index, public equities represented by the S&P 500 Index and investment grade bonds by the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index. 

March 31, 2025

Power Consumption Is Surging

By David Stubbs
  • After 20 years of flat demand, power consumption is surging.  
  • A 40% increase is projected over the next decade driven by AI, digitalization, and manufacturing.1
  • We estimate that meeting this demand will require a 6x increase in construction of new power generation and transmission capacity to keep pace.2
  • Connecting just the current energy projects in the US transmission queue to the grid is estimated to cost ~$4T, presenting a significant opportunity for private capital.3
US Electricity Demand1
Terawatt Hours
  1. EIA, as of November 2024 and NREL as of August 2022. Reflects total net electricity generation. Figures for 2024 and beyond reflect estimates.
  2. GridStrategies, 2024.
  3. S&P as of July 2024, and LevelTen Energy Report as of June 2024. Based on the fact that over 90% of the interconnection queue is renewables (wind and solar) and amount to $1.5B/GW to build in North America. Assumes 2600 gigawatts in the current transmission queue, per Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, as of April 2024.

Stay up-to-date

Sign up for Blackstone Market Commentary and Pattern Recognition updates.


Opinions expressed reflect the current opinions of Blackstone as of the date of publishing only and are based on Blackstone’s opinions of the then-current market environment, which is subject to change. Certain information contained in the content discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends, or other broad-based economic, market or political conditions and should not be construed as research or investment advice.

Certain information and data provided in this content are based on Blackstone proprietary knowledge and data. Portfolio companies may provide proprietary market data to Blackstone, including about local market supply and demand conditions, current market rents and operating expenses, capital expenditures, and valuations for multiple assets. Such proprietary market data is used by Blackstone to evaluate market trends as well as to underwrite potential and existing investments. Additionally, certain information contained in this content has been obtained from portfolio companies and/or sources outside Blackstone, such as press releases, reports, websites, and/or articles, which in certain cases have not been updated through the date hereof. While such information is believed to be reliable for purposes used herein, no representations are made as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and none of Blackstone, its funds, nor any of their affiliates takes any responsibility for, and has not independently verified, any such information. There can be no assurances that any of the trends described herein will continue or will not reverse. Past events and trends do not imply, predict or guarantee, and are not necessarily indicative of, future events or results. 

This commentary does not constitute an offer to sell any securities or the solicitation of an offer to purchase any securities. This commentary discusses broad market, industry or sector trends, or other general economic, market or political conditions and has not been provided in a fiduciary capacity under ERISA and should not be construed as research, investment advice, or any investment recommendation. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance.