Pattern Recognition_Blackstone

Pattern Recognition

Insights from the World’s Leading Alternative Asset Manager

September 5, 2025

Electricity Demand Rising Rapidly

  • Data center development, electrification, and the reindustrialization of the US economy are collectively driving a step change in power demand.  
  • Across the US, there have been significant upward revisions to regional power demand forecasts compared to 3-5 years ago (the latest forecast roughly 11x greater or an 8% CAGR).1
  • Meeting this rising demand will require huge amounts of investment to reinforce and upgrade the country’s aging electrical grid. Utilities are forecasted to invest $1.4T in the grid from 2025 to 2030 alone (equal to ~1.1x the market cap of the sector today).2
Projected Utility Demand Growth in Top Quartile Growth Markets
Average Compound Annual Growth Rate

Sources: Pre-2024 and latest forecast represents the average of Texas, Northern Indiana, Virginia, Georgia and Arizona. Texas: Texas represents ERCOT summer peak demand CAGR published in ’23 (’23 – ’32) vs. latest forecast as of April 2025 (’25 – ‘31). Northern Indiana: N. Indiana represents NIPSCO peak load forecast published in ’21 (roughly flat through ’40) vs. the 2024 Stakeholder Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) from October 2024. Uses a forecast period of (’23 – ’35) and does not include upside emerging load from data centers in revised case. Georgia: Georgia represents utility Georgia Power’s summer peak demand CAGR published in 2022 (’25 – ’31) vs. latest forecast published in July 2025 (’25 – ’31). Virginia: Virginia represents Dominion PJM 10-Yr summer peak demand CAGR published in ’21 vs. ’25. Arizona: Arizona represents long-term electricity sales forecast of Pinnacle West (NYSE:PNW; fully regulated electric utility serving ~1.4M customers in high-growing cities across Arizona) in ’19 vs. ’25.

  1. Represents latest forecast and is the average of Texas, Northern Indiana, Virginia, Georgia and Arizona. 
  2. Deloitte, as of February 26, 2025. Market cap data represents 48 listed US utilities, as of August 13, 2025. 

July 3, 2025

Private Credit Resilience in Times of Uncertainty

  • In early April, market volatility hit public credit markets hard.
  • High-yield bond spreads widened sharply — one of the most significant moves in history — before recovering ~71% by early May. 1
  • But private credit markets remained resilient, operating normally.
  • Further, private credit can offer stable cash flows, insulation from certain policy changes and can serve as a valuable tool for portfolio diversification. 2
High-Yield Spreads Gap Out in One of Most Significant Moves in History
8-week Absolute High-Yield Spread Changes (in bps)

Source: Bloomberg US Corporate High-Yield Index, as of April 8th, 2025.

  1. Bloomberg US Corporate High-Yield Index, as of May 4th, 2025.
  2. Diversification does not guarantee returns or protect against losses in declining markets.

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June 3, 2025

AI Boom Drives Data Center Growth

By Joe Zidle
  • Recent AI efficiency advancements like DeepSeek are driving further demand and investment in digital infrastructure.
  • Amazon CEO Andy Jassy recently noted, “We continue to believe AI is a once-in-a-lifetime reinvention of everything we know, the demand is unlike anything we’ve seen before…”1 
  • The five largest hyperscalers are rapidly increasing their data center capex, expecting to invest $328B in 2025 (up 40% YoY) and $2T over the next five years.2, 3
  •  Blackstone spotted this trend early. Our ~$30B data center development pipeline is 100% pre-leased to high-quality tenants, including leading technology companies on 15+ year leases.
Data Center Capex by the 5 Largest Hyperscalers (Meta, Google, Oracle, Microsoft, Amazon)
($ Billions)

Source: Morgan Stanley, as of February 2025.

  1. CEO Andy Jassy’s 2024 Letter to Shareholders, as of April 10, 2025.
  2. Morgan Stanley, as of February 2025.
  3. Dell’Oro Report, as of August 2024. Investment expected over the next 5 years. There can be no assurance that any of the trends described herein will continue in the future or will not reverse.

May 20, 2025

Secondaries Surge

By Joe Zidle
  • Publicly listed stocks and bonds trade on exchanges, while private drawdown funds are generally bought and sold on the “secondaries market.”
  • As private equity commitments have grown, so has the secondaries market. It has surged from $26B in 2013 to $160B in 2024, up 6x, which still represents less than 1.4% of the total value in private market funds.1 
  • That growth, combined with today’s muted IPO and M&A environment, and a heightened interest from endowments and others seeking early liquidity, has in our view created a particularly attractive environment for secondaries investors. 
Secondaries Market Transaction Volume
($ Billion)

Source: Evercore, February 2025.

  1. Preqin, as of September 30, 2024.


Opinions expressed reflect the current opinions of Blackstone as of the date of publishing only and are based on Blackstone’s opinions of the then-current market environment, which is subject to change. Certain information contained in the content discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends, or other broad-based economic, market or political conditions and should not be construed as research or investment advice.

Certain information and data provided in this content are based on Blackstone proprietary knowledge and data. Portfolio companies may provide proprietary market data to Blackstone, including about local market supply and demand conditions, current market rents and operating expenses, capital expenditures, and valuations for multiple assets. Such proprietary market data is used by Blackstone to evaluate market trends as well as to underwrite potential and existing investments. Additionally, certain information contained in this content has been obtained from portfolio companies and/or sources outside Blackstone, such as press releases, reports, websites, and/or articles, which in certain cases have not been updated through the date hereof. While such information is believed to be reliable for purposes used herein, no representations are made as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and none of Blackstone, its funds, nor any of their affiliates takes any responsibility for, and has not independently verified, any such information. There can be no assurances that any of the trends described herein will continue or will not reverse. Past events and trends do not imply, predict or guarantee, and are not necessarily indicative of, future events or results. 

This commentary does not constitute an offer to sell any securities or the solicitation of an offer to purchase any securities. This commentary discusses broad market, industry or sector trends, or other general economic, market or political conditions and has not been provided in a fiduciary capacity under ERISA and should not be construed as research, investment advice, or any investment recommendation. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance.