Private Credit Reality Check

November 24, 2025

Although there is plenty of noise in the market, the facts paint a different picture.

November 24, 2025

Key Takeaway

While credit fundamentals remain strong, in times of increasing performance dispersion, where you invest and who you invest with increasingly matters.

The compounding power of private credit returns typically requires a medium- to long-term investment horizon, so investors should consider their liquidity needs to determine whether and how much to commit to private credit.

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Important Disclosure Information

Note: Data is as of September 30, 2025, unless otherwise indicated. Returns for periods greater than one year are annualized. Past performance does not predict future returns. There can be no assurance that any fund or alternative asset class will achieve results comparable to those of any of Blackstone’s funds or be able to implement its strategy or achieve its investment objectives, including due to an inability to access sufficient investment opportunities, avoid substantial losses, or that any expected returns will be met.

Please see “Index Definitions” and “Index Comparison” at the end of this presentation for more information. Source: Morningstar, Blackstone Credit & Insurance (“BXCI”) from September 30, 2005 through June 30, 2025. “Leveraged Loans” is represented by Morningstar LSTA U.S. Leveraged Loan Index.
Private Credit represented by Cliffwater Direct Lending Index from September 30, 2005 through June 30, 2025, which is the latest publicly available data. Total return reflects the sum of annualized income return, annualized realized gain / loss, and annualized unrealized gain / loss during the period.
Private Credit represented by Cliffwater Direct Lending Index from September 30, 2005 through June 30, 2025, which is the latest data available. Annualized losses reflect annualized realized gains / losses during the period.
J.P. Morgan Default Monitor, published on December 1, 2025. Represents the last twelve-month par-weighted default rate for the U.S. leveraged loan market. The par-weighted default rate is calculated as the total par value of defaulted and LME loans over the last twelve months (including bankruptcies, missed payments, and distressed exchanges, but excluding technical defaults) divided by the average U.S. leveraged loan market size at the end and beginning of the last twelve-month period.
“Late 1990s” LTV refers to the approximate leverage through high-yield bonds utilized to finance major buyouts in the 1990s. “Pre-GFC” LTV refers to the approximate leverage through leveraged loans utilized to finance US buyouts from 2000–2007 based on data from PitchBook LCD. Today refers to the average LTV on mid & upper market M&A deals completed during Q3’25 based on data from KBRA DLD.
J.P. Morgan Research as of August 2025.
Represents the yearly return of the S&P 500, Traditional Fixed Income, and Private Credit during the years in which the S&P 500 Index (“S&P 500”) exhibited negative performance from 2000–2024.
Please see “Index Definitions” at the end of this presentation for more information. Source: Morningstar, Bloomberg, Blackstone Credit & Insurance as of September 30, 2025. “Leveraged Loans” is represented by Morningstar LSTA US Leveraged Loan Index. “Private Credit” is represented by Cliffwater Direct Lending Index.