Private Credit Reality Check
November 24, 2025
Although there is plenty of noise in the market, the facts paint a different picture.
November 24, 2025
1. Performance Has Been Battle Tested
1. Performance Has Been Battle Tested
Private credit has historically delivered twice the return of leveraged loans with only ~1% annualized losses. [ 3 ] That’s over a 20-year period, including the Global Financial Crisis, COVID-19 pandemic, and regional bank crisis.
2. Market Defaults Are Down
2. Market Defaults Are Down
Leveraged loan defaults are down over 100bps this year – hardly the crisis many headlines suggest. Defaults happen in credit investing. It’s all about how managers use disciplined underwriting to minimize defaults and asset management expertise to help drive recoveries. Most importantly, we believe credit fundamentals remain strong.
3. Lending Is More Conservative Today
3. Lending Is More Conservative Today
Average loan-to-value in direct lending is much lower today than prior periods, providing a larger equity buffer that would need to be wiped out before debt is impacted. Taking a step back, making senior-secured loans, first in line for repayment, to high-quality businesses with institutional owners is not overtly risky in our view, especially when those loans sit in low-leverage vehicles with matched assets and liabilities.
4. The Spread Premium Is Enduring
4. The Spread Premium Is Enduring
Private credit is delivering ~200bps excess spread over leveraged loans today. [ 6 ] The “farm-to-table” model brings investors right up to borrowers, eliminating return leakage from intermediaries taking fees, and delivering a customized solution. This incremental yield can be more valuable in lower-rate environments when spread represents a larger portion of total return.
The Private Credit Advantage
Farm-to-Table Model
5. Potential Stability When You Need It Most
5. Potential Stability When You Need It Most
The S&P 500 has had three negative years over the last two decades. In those years, private credit significantly outperformed both equities and leveraged loans — twice posting positive returns. Current income and a defensive position in the capital structure can be beneficial when times are uncertain and valuations are elevated.
Key Takeaway
We believe private credit can be an enduring allocation in investor portfolios that can offer both stability and yield through different environments.
While credit fundamentals remain strong, in times of increasing performance dispersion, where you invest and who you invest with increasingly matters.
The compounding power of private credit returns typically requires a medium- to long-term investment horizon, so investors should consider their liquidity needs to determine whether and how much to commit to private credit.
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Important Disclosure Information
Note: Data is as of September 30, 2025, unless otherwise indicated. Returns for periods greater than one year are annualized. Past performance does not predict future returns. There can be no assurance that any fund or alternative asset class will achieve results comparable to those of any of Blackstone’s funds or be able to implement its strategy or achieve its investment objectives, including due to an inability to access sufficient investment opportunities, avoid substantial losses, or that any expected returns will be met.