For the past several decades I have organized a series of lunches on summer Fridays for serious investors who spend their weekends in eastern Long Island. There are hedge fund activists, long/short heroes, corporate chiefs, venture capitalists, private equity stars and others. Many are well-known and there are more than a few billionaires. The goal is not to see how much net worth I can cram onto a shaded terrace, but how much wisdom I can focus on the key investment issues facing all of us. As Howard Marks of Oaktree wrote last year, the danger of this type of gathering is that a consensus of peers has a tendency to be wrong. I think it's fair to say that last year nobody anticipated the sharp drop in the price of oil, the Greek crisis or the Chinese devaluation, but over the years there have been a number of impressive insights.