Every August I organize two Friday luncheon discussions for serious investors who spend their summer weekends in Eastern Long Island. We focus on the major issues which will influence the world economy and its financial markets during the coming year. It is a broad constituency which includes more than a handful of billionaires, chief executives of public companies, private equity leaders, hedge fund managers and former government officials. There are about twenty five at each session. Called the “Benchmark Lunches”, they represent an opportunity to reflect on what is likely to happen with a group of successful and hopefully knowledgeable people. Since I write up the discussions, each participant can look back and assess whether the group was able to see future events clearly. As you might expect, their skill in doing this is not notable for its accuracy.